Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 agosto 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 242 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 95 (N07E65) produced an X1/Sf flare at 30/1329 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 457 km/s, a 780 sfu Tenflare, and significant discrete radio bursts. It appears to have fully rotated on to the visible disk and it appears to contain a beta-gamma magnetic structure. This region was also responsible for multiple C-class flares during the period. Region 87 (S08W33) continued to show steady decay in penumbral structure as the magnetic delta complex is no longer evident. New Region 96 (S14E75) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 87 and 95 are both capable of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Aug a 02 Sep
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Aug 170
  Previsto   31 Aug-02 Sep  170/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        30 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Aug  006/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Aug a 02 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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