Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred,
most without corresponding optical reports. Regions 95 (N08W31) and
96 (S16W15) remain the largest sunspot groups on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 95 and 96 could each produce low-level M-class
activity. Old active Region 69 (S08, L=299) is expected to return at
the east limb within the three-day forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux has been slowly increasing over the past 20 hours,
apparently due to a backside event over the northwest limb. Current
proton flux is about 9 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours or so.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 8-9 September in
response to yesterday's long-duration C5 flare and eruptive
filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could cross the 10 pfu
event threshold within the next few hours but a large peak event
flux is not expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Sep 178 Previsto 07 Sep-09 Sep 185/190/200 Media de 90 Días 06 Sep 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 008/010-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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