Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred, mostly in Regions 95 (N08W17) and 96 (S16W02). An
interesting eruptive filament near Region 102 (N08E26) was
associated with a C5 x-ray flare at 05/1706 UTC and a type II radio
sweep.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 95 and 96. A
general increase in activity levels is expected towards the end of
the three-day forecast period with the return of old Region 69 (S08,
L=299) which departed the disk as an active Ekc sunspot group.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Sep 175 Previsto 06 Sep-08 Sep 180/190/200 Media de 90 Días 05 Sep 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 023/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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