Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 septiembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Sep 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares occurred, mostly in Regions 95 (N08W17) and 96 (S16W02). An interesting eruptive filament near Region 102 (N08E26) was associated with a C5 x-ray flare at 05/1706 UTC and a type II radio sweep.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 95 and 96. A general increase in activity levels is expected towards the end of the three-day forecast period with the return of old Region 69 (S08, L=299) which departed the disk as an active Ekc sunspot group.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Sep a 08 Sep
Clase M30%40%50%
Clase X01%01%05%
Protón01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Sep 175
  Previsto   06 Sep-08 Sep  180/190/200
  Media de 90 Días        05 Sep 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Sep  023/042
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Sep a 08 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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