Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 297 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 162 (N26W04) produced
the largest of the few flares occurring today, an impulsive C7/1n at
1810UTC. Modest discrete frequency bursts and a type IV sweep
accompanied the flare. The flare site was just west of the large
leader spot, far from the seemingly more complicated central portion
of this elongated group. The serpentine plage field spans the full
extent of the region. Two new regions were assigned, Region 168
(N24W66) and 169 (S19E75).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The disturbance was fueled by high speed solar
wind (approx. 700 km/s), emanating from a large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The speed began to increase substantially
around 0800UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, as the high speed solar wind continues to buffet the
magnetosphere. Conditions are then expected return to more normal
levels during the last 48 hours, as the solar wind calms.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Oct 160 Previsto 25 Oct-27 Oct 160/155/155 Media de 90 Días 24 Oct 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Oct 030/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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