Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. An unobserved C6 x-ray flare at 0232UTC was the most energetic event of the day. Region 162 (N26E10) continues to dominate the disk. Although its plage forms one contiguous field, there are indications that the region may contain two bipoles. The westernmost large spot shows hints of a contained magnetic structure, while the easternmost spots, although unorganized, have a distinctive bipolar topology. The region may be reclassified, pending further evolutionary changes. Elsewhere, two new regions, 166 (S06E08) and 167 (N18E75), were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled, with an increasing chance of active levels near the end of the interval. Effects of a high speed solar wind stream may be seen on 26 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Oct 164
  Previsto   24 Oct-26 Oct  165/160/160
  Media de 90 Días        23 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/015-010/010-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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