Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 304 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been high. An X1 optically
uncorrelated event occurred at 31/1652 UTC. The SOHO/LASCO EIT
images indicates two possible source regions, Region 162 (N26W88)
and a region beyond the SE limb. A new region was numbered today as
Region 178 (N00W15).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 and 175 (N16E29) are both capable of
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active conditions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 1-2 November. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible for 3 November due to a coronal hole
passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Oct 170 Previsto 01 Nov-03 Nov 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 31 Oct 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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