Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 198 (S18E43)
produced an M7.4/1f flare at 18/0208 UTC. Region 198 has increased
in penumbral coverage and has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A polarity mixing is evident in
the leader spot and could be developing a weak delta configuration.
Region 191 (S18W55) is in a slight decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 198 and Region 191 have the potential for
M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 179 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 012/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 010/010-008/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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