Viendo archivo del martes, 22 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 162
(N27E22) produced an M1/Sf flare at 22/1535 UTC. Region 162
continues to grow and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing spot. Region 160 (S20W56) has shown a
decrease in area coverage and spot count in the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. One period
on isolated active conditions was observed at 22/09-12 UTC. Solar
wind velocity continues to gradually decrease, ending the period
near 450 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event on 20 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 169 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 170/170/165 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 012/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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