Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 marzo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 067 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Mar 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. The largest flare during the period was a C2.6/Sf event that occurred in Region 206 (N05E63) at 08/0957Z. White light currently shows this group to consist of a single large penumbral spot which may share both polarities. Will be able to better analyze once region rotates further onto disk. A C1.0 flare was observed from Region 301 (N22W18) at 08/0116Z. There was little in the way of magnetic structure changes seen in this region during the period. Region 297 (S14W25) produced a couple low level B-class flares today. Regions 307 (S26W02) and 308 (n08E75) were newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 296 (N13W31).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. There was an isolated active period at mid latitudes in response to a southward oscillation in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field between 08/1500 and 1800Z. The coronal hole high speed stream that has been geoeffective for the past several days appears to have rotated out of its favorable position early in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Mar a 11 Mar
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Mar 148
  Previsto   09 Mar-11 Mar  150/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        08 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Mar  013/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  008/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Mar a 11 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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