Viendo archivo del domingo, 9 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 068 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. The
largest flare of the period was a C4.4/Sf event that occurred at
09/0647Z from Region 304 (S11W43). This region also produced a
C2.6/Sf flare at 09/007Z and has shown some growth in magnetic
complexity since yesterday. Region 306 (N05E47) has shown slight
growth in penumbral coverage and was responsible for several B-class
flares today. Region 296 (N12W45) was relatively quiet throughout
the period and has underwent little change in the past 24 hours.
This region retains a weak gamma magnetic structure. New Regions
309 (N05W77), 310 (S16W49), and 311 (S17E45) were newly assigned
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 296 (N12W45) has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions were observed at middle and high
latitudes early in the period due southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance for
isolated active conditions at higher latitudes through the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Mar 153 Previsto 10 Mar-12 Mar 150/145/145 Media de 90 Días 09 Mar 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Mar 011/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 011/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 007/010-007/010-005/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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