Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 087 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at
27/2325Z, likely associated with activity from near the southwest
limb. Region 319 (N12W18) has stabilized following a period of
rapid growth in the previous 24 hours. Despite its moderate size,
this region maintains a fairly simple magnetic configuration and has
been stable. Region 321 (N04E21) exhibited slight decay and was
relatively quiet this period. New Region 326 (S12E74) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have good potential for C-class
flares and a small chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor
storm periods during local nighttime hours. The most active
conditions early in the period were due to a waning high speed
coronal hole stream. A weak transient passed the ACE spacecraft
between 28/1400 - 1500Z. Predominantly southward Bz in the IMF
resulted in active levels late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at
higher latitudes are possible through day one and again on day three
as another weak coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Mar 147 Previsto 29 Mar-31 Mar 150/155/150 Media de 90 Días 28 Mar 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 016/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Mar 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 012/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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