Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 095 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Apr a 08 Apr
| Clase M | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Apr 137 Previsto 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120 Media de 90 Días 05 Apr 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Apr a 08 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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