Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 127 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Today's flare activity
consisted of occasional C-class flares, mostly from Region 348
(S34W80) and Region 349 (S14W86). The largest event of the day,
however, was a C5 at 2049 UTC from a new region behind east limb at
about N17. A 10 degree filament near S10W18 disappeared between 1342
UTC and 1403 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated
M-class event sometime during the next three days. An overall
downward trend in activity levels and in the background levels is
expected over the next three days with the departure of regions 348
and 349.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day. An interval of major storm levels was observed at mid and
high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Today's activity resulted from
the persistence of a high speed solar wind stream (velocities
ranging from 670 to 750 km/s) accompanied by weakly to moderately
negative Bz (-5 to -10 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance
for some isolated storm intervals, as the current high speed solar
wind stream is expected to continue. A slight decline in activity
levels to unsettled to active is expected on the second and third
days. Conditions should stay somewhat elevated relative to quiet,
however, as a new coronal hole will be rotating into a geoeffective
location.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 May a 10 May
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 May 110 Previsto 08 May-10 May 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 07 May 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 May 015/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 May 032/037 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 May a 10 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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