Viendo archivo del jueves, 8 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 128 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few C-class flares, all from either
Region 348 (S36W90) or Region 349 (S14W99). Both of these regions
have rotated beyond the west limb. The remaining solar active
regions are small, stable, and unimpressive. GOES-12 solar x-ray
imagery continues to show a new region just behind east limb at
about N17. An 11 degree filament near S34W14 disappeared between
2145 UTC and 2224 UTC on 7 May.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight but declining chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 348 or Region 349 from behind
the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially at unsettled levels but has been
at active to minor storm levels since 08/0000 UTC and continuing
through the end of the reporting period (08/2100 UTC). The
geomagnetic field continues to be buffeted by a persistent high
speed solar wind stream with velocities in the 700 to 800 km/s range
and Bz values varying between -8 nT to +1 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active. Solar observations indicate an
extended coronal hole structure in the southern hemisphere which is
likely to keep activity enhanced for at least the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 May 101 Previsto 09 May-11 May 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 08 May 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 May 024/036 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 May 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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