Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 160 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W32)
produced an M4/1n event at 09/1128 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. The SOHO/LASCO imagery also observed a CME which
accompanied this event. The CME appears to be directed toward the
northwest and not earthbound. Region 375 continues to become more
magnetically complex and maintains its delta magnetic configuration.
This region has been responsible for the majority of events of this
period. However, Region 380 (S14E42) produced several C-class
events and has increased in both white light area and sunspot count
since yesterday. New Region 381 (S18E19) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. This activity is
a result of continued coronal hole effects and the elevated solar
wind speeds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 and 11 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 12 June as solar wind speeds should
begin to decrease.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jun 158 Previsto 10 Jun-12 Jun 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 09 Jun 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 021/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 020/025-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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