Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 julio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low to moderate levels. There was an M2.3 x-ray flare from Region 400 (N05E03) which occurred on 06 July at 0032 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. The potential for M-class flare activity is still good from Regions 397 (N11W39) and 400 (N05E03).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The coronal hole which influenced the previous days activity has moved out of geoeffective range. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence at geostationary altitudes has been at moderate levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours. On day two, there is a chance for a weak enhancement in the solar wind particles at earth due to a coronal mass ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC. This will elevate the geomagnetic field to unsettled to minor storm levels, but should quickly return to quiet to unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Jul 130
  Previsto   07 Jul-09 Jul  130/135/140
  Media de 90 Días        06 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul  014/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  012/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  010/015-018/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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