Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 163 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N11W73)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.3/1n at 12/0130 UTC,
an M2.9/Sf at 11/2151 UTC, and an M1.1/Sf at 12/1712 UTC. Region
375 is decreasing slightly in size as it approaches the west limb,
and Region 380 is stable. Background x-ray flux remained at C
levels during the period. New Region 384 (N16W42) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed decreased to around 500 km/s as a coronal hole has
rotated out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole passes into geoeffective position. Active conditions
on day two might also be the result of potential effects of CMEs
related to major flare and erupting filament activity observed on
11 June 03.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| Clase M | 95% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jun 164 Previsto 13 Jun-15 Jun 150/145/130 Media de 90 Días 12 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/012-015/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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