Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 162 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N10W62)
produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC
and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC. Region 375 maintained its size and
magnetic complexity. Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC.
At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on
SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha. Background X-ray flux remained at
M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC.
New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to
continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated
periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from
yesterday's flare activity. Unsettled conditions are expected on
days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three
due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and
erupting filament observed today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jun a 14 Jun
| Clase M | 95% | 95% | 75% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jun 193 Previsto 12 Jun-14 Jun 160/150/145 Media de 90 Días 11 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jun 019/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jun 020/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 010/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jun a 14 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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