Viendo archivo del martes, 8 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 189 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar acitivity was low. Region 397 (N12W65) produced
several C-class flares, the highest being a C2.3/Sf at 08/0230Z.
Region 400 (N05W24) produced a C1.5 at 08/0251Z, and Region 402
(S12W58) produced two C-class flares, a C5.2/1f at 08/0730Z and a
C3.2/Sf at 08/1626Z. A large filament in the northwest quadrant
erupted in parts: a 23-degree section (N30W22) early in the period
and a 21-degree section (N38W38) at 08/1500Z. Region 397 decreased
in size and magnetic complexity, to a beta-gamma configuration.
Region 402 grew rapidly in size over the period. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 397 has potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period,
with isolated active to minor storm conditions on day three due to
increased wind speeds from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jul 131 Previsto 09 Jul-11 Jul 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 08 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-010/010-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jul a 11 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 02% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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