Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class activity
occurred, predominantly from developing Region 410 (S12W26). This
region continues to grow and now exhibits a delta configuration near
the central portion of the region. Growth in Region 412 (N16W34) has
slowed, but a moderately complex Beta-Gamma configuration persist.
New Region 417 (S22W36) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours and
produced occasional C-class flares. New Regions 416 (S09W42) and 418
(S05W08) were also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 410 has the potential to produce M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed solar wind stream with speeds exceeding 700 km/s is
responsible for this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels this period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
during local nighttime hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jul 157 Previsto 21 Jul-23 Jul 160/165/165 Media de 90 Días 20 Jul 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 020/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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