Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C4
at 15/2234Z from just beyond the west limb. Region 431 (S12W26)
continues a slow decay but retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. The delta configuration within the intermediate spots
appears to be simplifying. New Region 435 (S18W41) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active conditions.
Two periods of isolated active conditions were observed. Solar wind
speed has decreased to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with the chance of
isolated active levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 127 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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