Viendo archivo del martes, 22 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were several minor
C-class flares this period from developing Region 417 (S21W64),
including a C5/1f at 22/0718Z. This region exhibited moderate growth
during the period, in both size and magnetic complexity. Previously
active Region 410 (S13W53) maintains its considerable size, but has
simplified over the past 24-36 hours. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Regions 409 (N16W48), and 412 (N16W59).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare, most likely from
Region 417.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds were steady at approximately 450 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jul 153 Previsto 23 Jul-25 Jul 150/145/135 Media de 90 Días 22 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 010/012-012/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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