Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 204 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 417 (S22W76)
produced several C-class events during the period. This region
continues to exhibit a beta gamma magnetic configuration. Region
410 (S13W66) is still the largest region on the visible disk but
continues to decay slightly in sunspot count and area coverage. A
new region was numbered today as Region 419 (N10E62).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 417 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data indicates a possible transient disturbance which brought the
speed up gradually through the period from a background of around
450 km/s to a peak of 523 km/s at 23/1544 UTC. This was also
accompanied with a southward turning of Bz at 23/1404 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quit to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jul 144 Previsto 24 Jul-26 Jul 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 23 Jul 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jul 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 012/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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