Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 242 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Though several regions
continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a
strong level of activity. A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg
extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been
ejected from the sun.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than
low potential for flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a
single period of major storming at 0600 UTC. The interplanetary
magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar
wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s. During the
storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s. There is some
evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit that a
small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming
period. The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to
36 hours. Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major
storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Aug 114 Previsto 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 30 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 012/012-020/020-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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