Viendo archivo del domingo, 31 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 442 (S13W47)
produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z. LASCO imagery indicated a
CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare. None of the
other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any
significant changes or activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Late on day one to
early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm levels
are expected on day two and day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 110 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/025-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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