Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 453 (S23W69)
produced occasional point brightenings and some weak surging, but
was otherwise stable. New Region 455 (S16E32) was numbered today. No
other significant activity was observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Low C-class flares are possible from Region 453.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with very isolated
active periods. A high speed coronal hole stream that has been in
effect over the past few days continues to subside, declining to
near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on
day two through day three and produce occasional active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Sep 105 Previsto 07 Sep-09 Sep 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 06 Sep 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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