Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 425 (S09W43) produced a
C3/Sf flare at 10/1020Z followed by a more gradual C2 flare that
peaked at 10/1128Z. Region 431 (S13E56) produced an impulsive C1/Sf
flare at 10/0127Z. This beta gamma region is showing some minor
complexity in a spot group with over 250 millionths of white light
coverage. Region 424 (S18W41), the largest region on the visible
disk, exhibited only minor plage fluctuations this period. Remaining
active regions were quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. C-class flares are possible from Regions 424, 425,
and 431.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A declining high speed
stream with very low density and weak northward IMF Bz continues to
buffet the Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind speed declined from
near 700 km/s to below 600 km/s by the end of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active on day one. Another coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on days two and three. Expect unsettled to minor storm levels both
days with isolated major storm periods on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Aug 131 Previsto 11 Aug-13 Aug 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 10 Aug 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 012/012-020/020-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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