Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
Region 456 (S09W19) produced several low level B-class flares today.
This region has shown rapid spot growth over the past 24 hours.
Magnetic analysis depicts a gamma structure in the trailing polarity
of the spot cluster. Region 457 (S11W06) remains a magnetically
simple complex with several small umbra visible in white light. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 456 is showing potential for C-class
flare production.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably
positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to active levels through day
one of the period. The return of quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 099 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 017/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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