Viendo archivo del martes, 7 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W18) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1.8 x-ray
event that occurred at 07/1743 UTC, along with numerous lesser
B-class flares. This region continues to show a gamma structure
near the central portion of the spot cluster. A slight increase in
penumbral coverage was noted today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 471 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the
elevated conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active conditions as the high speed
stream begins to wane on the first day of the period. Days two and
three should see predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Oct 112 Previsto 08 Oct-10 Oct 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 07 Oct 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 010/012-008/010-006/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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