Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity continued low. Intermittent C-class
subflares came from Region 456 (S08W88), now nearing the west limb.
Newly assigned Region 460 (N16E75) rotated into view. Little else of
significance occurred.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
geosynchronous electron flux remained high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled through 17 September. The effects
of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated 18 September, as
active to minor storm conditions are probable.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 097 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 010/010-010/015-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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