Viendo archivo del martes, 19 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 231 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 431 produced two
M-class flares, an M2/1n at 19/0759 UTC and an M2/2f at 19/1006 UTC.
The second M-flare was associated with a CME observed in LASCO
images to be directed to the southwest. Region 436 (N08E42) produced
a C5/Sf flare at 19/1826 UTC. Other disk regions were quiet. New
Region 437 (S22W27) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small M-class flares is possible in Region 431 or
436.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm to quiet levels. The
CME-induced disturbance that occurred yesterday appears to have
ended. The field has been at unsettled to quiet levels since about
19/0600 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours. Active
conditions may start on 22 August in response to a recurrent
high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Aug 117 Previsto 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 046/086 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 015/015-015/015-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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