Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 260 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 456, just beyond
west limb near S08, produced an M1 flare at 16/2224 UTC. Coronal
loops were seen in association with the x-ray event. Few flares have
occurred since then, as the disk has been quiet and stable. One new
region was assigned, Region 463 (N09E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A brief
quiet period began the interval prior to the onset of the high speed
solar wind stream. The solar wind radial speed reached approximately
800 km/s at 1500 UTC. Its source is a large coronal hole located in
the western solar hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two
days, then calming to be unsettled to active by day three. The high
speed stream should buffet the magnetosphere for the majority of the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Sep 106 Previsto 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 17 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 025/060 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 025/040-020/025-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Sep a 20 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 55% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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