Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C-class event, a C1 at
0801 UTC, marked the most significant activity of the day. There
are five spotted regions on the disk and all are simple and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The
effects of the high speed -- 850 km/s -- solar wind continue again
today. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels early, then calm to
unsettled to active conditions by the end of the forecast interval.
The influence of the high speed solar wind stream should diminish
over the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Sep 109 Previsto 19 Sep-21 Sep 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 035/061 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 020/035-015/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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