Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 270 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 has produced
several C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at 27/1143 UTC and a
C1.3/Sf at 1204 UTC. This Region is stable in size and magnetic
complexity. New Region 469 (S09W24) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 464 has the potential to produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar
wind speed from a coronal hole in geoeffective position continued to
decrease to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions all three days.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible day one due to the last
remaining effects of the coronal hole passing out of geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 130 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 130/125/125 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 011/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 012/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 04% | 04% | 04% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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