Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 284 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes were observed in any active region, and no new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 471 (S07W70) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one, with an
increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions possible on
days two and three due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Oct 106 Previsto 12 Oct-14 Oct 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 11 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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