Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89) the only spot group observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due to back side activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09 November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor storm levels possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Nov a 10 Nov
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Nov 091
  Previsto   08 Nov-10 Nov  090/090/095
  Media de 90 Días        07 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  006/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  008/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Nov a 10 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%15%

All times in UTC

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