Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and
B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17
November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the
visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At
approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE
spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was
southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm
levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with
continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of
the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue.
Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major
storm levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 098 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/125 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 030/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 19 enero 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
domingo, 18 enero 2026
X1.9 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 31 diciembre 2025
Happy New Year! Celebrate with an M7.1 solar flare!
Últimos mensajes del foro
Do the high-resolution sunspot counts point to more complex sunspots? 17AR 14342/14344 16AR 4345 36Ar 14349 14Filaments and prominences 453
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.6 -4.4 |
| Last 30 days | 122.3 +11.2 |