Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35)
produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region
continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little
threat of major flare. Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488
are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and
intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance.
Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate
last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares
throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous
rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential
even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very
small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in
excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field
variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to
minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole
which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to
be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Nov 104 Previsto 17 Nov-19 Nov 105/125/150 Media de 90 Días 16 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 021/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 025/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 025/035-020/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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