Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 347 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 522 (S16W50).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The coronal hole high speed stream continued to keep
solar wind speeds averaging between 700-800 km/s with Bz
fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14-15 Dec. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Dec.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Dec 088 Previsto 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 13 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 017/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Dec 025/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 015/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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