Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E56)
produced a C8.6/Sf at 0313Z. Two new regions were numbered today;
Region 526 (N12W54) and Region 527 (S15W41).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Active regions observed on EIT imagery just beyond the east limb may
increase the level of solar activity beginning 20 December.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
observed at ACE continued a gradual decline to below 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole rotating into
geoeffective position on 19 December may produce elevated solar wind
speed, resulting in isolated active to minor storm conditions in the
geomagnetic field on 19-20 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 118 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 010/012-015/018-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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