Viendo archivo del martes, 13 enero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 013 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jan 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 536 (S12W18) produced several low level C-class flares during the period. Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to exit the west solar limb. Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf flare at 0609Z. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains intact. Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the solar east limb. A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation of the region onto the disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z. The M-class activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jan a 16 Jan
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Jan 118
  Previsto   14 Jan-16 Jan  125/130/135
  Media de 90 Días        13 Jan 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jan a 16 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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