Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 003 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12E51)
continues to be the largest of the three spotted regions on the
visible solar disk. This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 536 could produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s with a southward Bz of -5
to -10 nt during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately active to minor storm conditions for
04-06 January due to the effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jan 116 Previsto 04 Jan-06 Jan 120/125/125 Media de 90 Días 03 Jan 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 025/030-020/030-025/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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