Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 012 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Regions
536 (S12W68) and 537 (N05W03) both continue to produce multiple B
and C-class flares. Region 536 continues to show a slow, steady
decay. Region 537 has shown a slight growth in penumbral coverage
and retains a complex beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure. A newly
numbered region; Region 540 (S11E76) appears to have had some minor
flare activity in the vicinity of what so far is a cluster of alpha
spots. These spots became visible earlier in the period. This
group's proximity to the solar east limb hinders and further
analysis at the time of this writing.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 537 is remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The coronal
hole has moved beyond a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jan a 15 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jan 118 Previsto 13 Jan-15 Jan 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 12 Jan 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jan 012/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jan a 15 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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