Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E28)
produced a C1.2 flare at 15/2304Z. New region 542 (N11E54) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily increased to above 600 km/s by the end of the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 17 and
18 January and could produce isolated minor storm levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 120 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 009/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 03% | 03% | 03% |
All times in UTC
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