Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E43)
produced a C3.2/1f at 15/0632 UT. New Region 541 (S09W03) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 540 is capable of C-class and isolated M-class flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Several hours of
southward Bz in the second half of 15 January may have been
responsible for periods of active conditions. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchrohous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor
storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated arrival of high
speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jan 119 Previsto 16 Jan-18 Jan 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 15 Jan 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/018-015/025-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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