Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 037 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
activity today consisted of several minor low level B-class flares.
Region 551 (S06E13) has shown some growth in penumbral coverage
since yesterday. The gamma structure in the trailing portion of the
region remains intact. Region 549 (N14W09) has undergone decay in
sunspot count and areal coverage. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated low
level M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A period of
minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes between
06/0300 and 0600Z due to a high speed stream (near 600km/s) and
sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from predominantly quiet to active levels
throughout the period. Day three may experience isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Feb 107 Previsto 07 Feb-09 Feb 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 06 Feb 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/015-010/015-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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