Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 marzo 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 064 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Mar 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 567 (S12W29) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the period. The largest event was a C2 x-ray flare that occurred at 04/1007Z. A weak delta magnetic structure has become evident in a cluster of intermediate sunspots near region center. An emerging flux region, Region 569 (S11E34) with several rapidly developing umbra, was assigned today. The remainder of the disk and limb were quiet today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 567 is capable of producing an isolated low level M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed solar wind stream has been on a steady decline since the middle of the period (from 600 to near 450 km/s at the time of this writing). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Mar a 07 Mar
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Mar 098
  Previsto   05 Mar-07 Mar  105/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        04 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  008/010-007/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Mar a 07 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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