Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 231 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 656 (S15,L=87)
produced significant flare activity, including an X1.8/Sf at 18/1740
UTC. Region 661 (N09E06) exhibited gradual growth in size over the
period, and produced several C-class flares. New Region 662
(N12E28) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 661 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Isolated active
conditions are possible on days two and three (20-21 Aug) from minor
effects of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 140 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/010-008/015-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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