Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 232 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656
(S13,L=87) continues to produce M-class flares from the west limb:
an M3.0 at 19/0701 UTC and an M2.1 at 1351 UTC. Region 661 (N09W06)
is stable in size and magnetic conplexity, maintaining its
beta-gamma configuration. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery from
the X1.8 flare reported yesterday, although the CME was not directed
toward Earth. New Region 663 (N08E75) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Lingering flare activity from Region 656 is still
possible for another day. Region 661 is capable of producing
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with
isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Aug 121 Previsto 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Aug 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 008/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 008/015-005/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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