Viendo archivo del martes, 31 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. An M1.4 flare was
observed from Region 663 at 31/0538Z. A Type II radio sweep with a
speed of 700 km/s, as well as a CME off the west limb, were observed
in association with the M flare. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 663 may still produce C class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to major storm levels. Bz at
ACE turned northward at 2230Z resulting in isolated major storming
early on 31 August. Unsettled to active conditions prevailed for
the rest of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
A glancing blow from the CME shock associated with today's M flare
may cause isolated active conditions on 3 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 088 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 100/110/110 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 027/034 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 024/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 010/020-005/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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